1. Global Peace Index (GPI) – Institute for Economics & Peace · Current year: 2026 · Total countries ranked: 163 · Countries with deteriorated peace scores (past year): 119 · Countries with improved peace scores (past year): 62 · Consecutive years of global decline: 12 · Most peaceful country: Iceland · Least peaceful country: Russia (ranked 163rd) · United States ranking: 134th (lowest in US history) · Global average peace score: 2.43 (scale 1–5, lower = more peaceful) · Historical comparison: Current global average is worse than 2008 baseline --- 2. Armed Conflict Data – Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) · Active state-based conflicts (2026): 61 · Active state-based conflicts (2008): 59 · Increase since 2008: +2 · Conflict-related deaths (2025): 181,000+ · Conflict-related deaths (2008): ~30,000 · Multiplier (2008–2025): 6× · Number of countries involved in external conflicts (2026): 103 · Number of countries involved in external conflicts (2008): 59 --- 3. Displacement Data – UNHCR · Total forcibly displaced persons globally: 117.4 million · Breakdown: Refugees (36.4m), Asylum-seekers (6.1m), Internally displaced (74.9m) · Year-over-year increase: +8.3 million · Highest recorded total in UNHCR history: Yes --- 4. Military Expenditure – SIPRI · Global military spending (2025): $2.9 trillion · Percentage of global GDP: 3.1% · Year-over-year increase: 6.8% · All-time record: Yes · Top spender: United States – $948 billion · Second: China – $385 billion (estimated) · Third: Russia – $145 billion (estimated) --- 5. IESE Global Uncertainty Index – University of Navarra · Current reading (June 2026): 102.3 · Historical baseline: 100.0 (1990–2020 average) · **Readings above baseline indicate above-average uncertainty · Previous peak (COVID-19, March 2020): 108.7 · Previous peak (2008 financial crisis): 106.2 --- 6. Economic Impact of Violence – Institute for Economics & Peace · Total global economic impact of violence (2025): $21.8 trillion · As percentage of global GDP: 10.5% · Per capita cost: $2,800 · Components: Military expenditure ($2.9t), homicide ($3.2t), internal security ($2.1t), conflict losses ($5.6t), refugee costs ($1.2t), other --- 7. Business Perception Surveys – World Economic Forum / McKinsey · Executives citing geopolitical conflict as top growth threat: 72% · Year-over-year increase in this figure: +14 percentage points · Executives citing war as primary political risk (2026): 53% · Executives citing civil unrest as primary political risk (2026): 41% · Survey sample size: 1,200 senior executives across 56 countries · First year war overtook civil unrest: 2026 --- 8. Strait of Hormuz – Maritime Traffic Data (MarineTraffic, June 2026) · Date of Iran's announced closure: Saturday, June 20, 2026 · Vessels tracked exiting strait, eastern side (morning of June 21): 3 · Vessels tracked heading east (afternoon of June 21): 3 · Note: Tracking data may not capture all movements; some vessels may have turned off transponders --- 9. Lebanon – Israel Conflict Casualties (since March 2, 2026) · Lebanese fatalities (Lebanon Ministry of Health): 4,057 · Israeli soldiers killed in Lebanon (IDF): 34 · Israeli civilians killed in northern Israel (Israeli authorities): 4 · Israeli ground forces occupying southern Lebanon: Estimated 5% of Lebanese territory · Date of US-Iran ceasefire agreement: June 16, 2026 · Date of Israel-Hezbollah separate ceasefire: June 18, 2026 · Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon after US-Iran deal signed (June 16–21): 67+ killed · Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel after deal signed: 5 Israeli soldiers killed --- 10. US-Iran Initial Agreement – Key Terms (June 16, 2026) · Final agreement deadline: 60 days (by August 15, 2026) · Commitment to end fighting on all fronts: Yes · Commitment to reopen Strait of Hormuz: Yes · US commitment to lift military blockade on Iranian ports: Yes · US commitment to terminate all sanctions on Iran: Yes · Iran reconstruction package: $300 billion · Nuclear programme: Subject to future negotiations (not addressed in initial deal) --- 11. US-Iran Talks – Delegations (June 21, 2026) US delegation: · Vice-President JD Vance · Jared Kushner (son-in-law to President Trump) · Steve Witkoff (Special Envoy) Iranian delegation: · Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Parliamentary Speaker) · Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister) Mediator: · Shehbaz Sharif (Prime Minister, Pakistan) · Field Marshal Asim Munir (Head of Pakistan Armed Forces) · Pakistan hosted previous negotiation round Location: Bürgenstock resort, Switzerland --- 12. Public Statements (June 21, 2026) JD Vance (prior to talks): · "Turn over a new leaf" · US willing to "fundamentally transform" relations if Iran gives up nuclear ambitions and regional instability role Donald Trump (via social media, during talks): · Iran "must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble" · Threat: "hit Iran very hard again" if they do not Iranian Foreign Ministry (Esmaeil Baqaei, statement): · Final deal contingent on enforcing existing commitments · Includes stopping all military operations · Sunday's talks focused on implementation Iranian position (repeated): Nuclear programme is peaceful --- 13. Additional Context · Previous US-Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA): Signed 2015, US withdrew 2018 under Trump · US-Iran war start date: February 28, 2026 · Lebanon entered war: Shortly after February 28 – Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel following strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader · Israel's stated position: Its conflict with Hezbollah is separate from US-Iran war · Israel's stated intention: No withdrawal from southern Lebanon