Prepared for Evan Winter, Fiveo1 Site: Calle 15 de Febrero, Panajachel, Sololá, Guatemala (GPS 14.738696, -91.158421) Post mail only: Fiveo1, PO Box 312786, Avalon, California 90704 Submissions: Fiveo1.com How to read these numbers. Every figure below is either a verified 2026 reference point or a clearly labeled planning assumption. Items marked [VERIFIED] are drawn from current public sources as of October 2026. Items marked [ASSUMPTION] are planning estimates that must be confirmed before this goes to any investor or government. The model is built so you can change one input and see the effect. --- 1. Executive Summary The project is a community-owned renewal of the Panajachel lakefront district. It combines micro-hydro power, lake water purification, electric transit, in-place housing redevelopment, a fish hatchery, a hydrothermal wellness hotel, and sports and events. It is financed through a Catalina Island renewable-energy investment pact. Its core social feature is a guaranteed Participant Employment Program for local-born residents: a 5-hour, low-stress workday at a guaranteed wage, housing included, and an up-front investment of three times local annual earnings per person. Headline results (Scenario A, 250 participants, base case): · Total capital: about $24.6M ($21.0M enterprises plus $3.6M participant investment) · Participant program cost: about $2.24M per year · Enterprise earnings before participant labor: about $2.69M per year at stabilization (year 5) · Net after paying all participants: about +$0.45M per year; the upside case reaches about +$1.2M per year · Larger scenarios (500 and 1,000 participants) are not self-funding and need outside grants or endowment support (Section 5) --- 2. Legal and Approval Framework A US bill cannot authorize work in Guatemala. The structure below makes the project legally buildable. Each approval is a gate, and skipping one is the fastest way to lose the whole project. Gate Authority What it covers Municipal agreement (convenio) Municipalidad de Panajachel, Concejo Municipal Land use, zoning, services, partnership Lake basin approval AMSCLAE (lake authority) Anything touching shoreline, water, boats Environmental license MARN Environmental impact study for hydro, hotel, hatchery, extraction Energy permits MEM, CNEE Generation authorization and grid connection Indigenous consultation Kaqchikel and Tz'utujil authorities, Alcaldía Indígena Free, prior, informed consent (ILO Convention 169) Land and cultural heritage Registro de la Propiedad, IDAEH Title audit, archaeological clearance Entity and tax SAT, Registro Mercantil, IGSS Guatemalan company, payroll, social security US side California / LA County, US counsel Investment vehicle, securities compliance Nothing in this package overrides these gates. The proposal is designed to pass through them. --- 3. Program Components 3.1 Micro-hydro sub-generation Ten run-of-river units of 100 kW each (1.0 MW total) on existing stream flow, with no dams and no reservoirs. Expected output is about 4,800 MWh per year at a 55% capacity factor. Power serves the project first, with the surplus sold to the grid or the municipality. Updated cost reference: Micro-hydro projects in Guatemala with installed capacity between 100 and 1,000 kW have capital costs ranging from $1,500 to $2,000 per kW for sites with reasonable access. A 2026 study of the MCH Chel project in Guatemala documented approximately **$3,000 per kW** due to remote, difficult-to-access terrain. For the Panajachel lakefront site, which has existing road access, a planning figure of **$2,500–$3,000 per kW** is more realistic than the original $3,000 per kW flat assumption. Revised capital for 1.0 MW: $2.5M–$3.0M (original $3.0M is at the high end and may be conservative). Incentive note: Guatemala's Law of Incentives for the Development of Renewable Energy Projects grants exemptions from import duties, VAT, and income tax for up to 10 years for qualifying hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal projects. This could materially reduce the effective capital cost and should be factored into the financial model. 3.2 Lake water purification and monitoring Municipal wastewater treatment plants, a shoreline wetland filter, and continuous water-quality sensors. This is the priority item, because the lake's health makes everything else possible. Updated cost reference: A 2026 Guatemalan government program for wastewater treatment includes Q238.9 million for seven new treatment plants and two collectors for southern Guatemala City. That works out to approximately Q34 million per plant (about $4.4 million at current exchange rates). For Panajachel's smaller population (roughly 11,000–13,000), a scaled plant would cost less. The original **$4.0M** allocation for water purification and monitoring is within a plausible range but should be confirmed with a site-specific engineering quote. 3.3 Transit (including the tunnel concept) Electric ferries and lakefront shuttles in the first phase. The "lake tunnel" idea is treated as a feasibility study only (a short bypass or underpass to relieve Panajachel's traffic), with geotechnical and volcanic-hazard review before any commitment. 3.3b Housing redevelopment In-place redevelopment of existing neighborhoods: modest, earthquake-resistant homes assigned to participant households at no cost. Moving within the project footprint happens only by consent and with a replacement home ready first. Updated cost reference: Guatemala's National Statistics Institute (INE) reports a basic housing unit at Q66,484.90 and a unit with finishes at Q89,131.17 (2026 methodology). At the current exchange rate (Q7.64 = $1), that is approximately **$8,700** for a basic unit and $11,670** with finishes. The original **$18,000 per unit assumption is significantly higher than current INE data and should be revised downward. Revised planning figure: $12,000–$15,000 per unit to account for site preparation, earthquake-resistant engineering, and utilities in the Panajachel context. 3.4 Fish hatchery Land-based recirculating hatchery using native or already-established species only, with strict controls against releases into the lake. Updated cost reference: A 2026 Guatemalan tilapia production project documented a total investment of Q200,610 (about $26,260) for a small-scale operation, while a larger project showed total costs of **Q352,701** over 10 years. The original **$1.5M** capital figure for the hatchery is far above these small-scale examples. A commercial-scale land-based recirculating hatchery with modest capacity could be built for $300,000–$800,000, depending on capacity and technology. Revised planning figure: $500,000–$1.0M, with the original $1.5M treated as a high-end estimate. 3.5 Hydrothermal wellness spa and hotel 60 rooms plus spa. A thermal resource survey comes first; if no usable hot water exists, the spa uses solar-heated water and volcanic-mud treatments instead. Updated cost reference: The Aviva Hotel on Lake Atitlán (Tzununa), completed in 2024, had a total project cost of $2 million** for a boutique property. For a 60-room hotel with spa facilities, the original **$9.0M capital assumption works out to **$150,000 per room**, which is high for the Guatemalan market. At the Aviva benchmark, a 60-room property might cost **$4M–$6M** depending on land, finishes, and spa scope. **Revised planning figure: $5.0M–$7.0M**, with the original $9.0M treated as a conservative upper bound. Updated rate reference: Average hotel prices in Guatemala are approximately $67 per night**, with high-season prices around **$125 and a median of **$52**. For a mid-range hotel on Lake Atitlán with spa and hydrothermal features, a planning rate of **$120–$150 per night** is more realistic than the original $140 assumption (which is at the upper end but achievable for a differentiated wellness property). The upside case rate of $180 is aggressive but not impossible for a premium wellness resort. 3.6 Sports and events Basketball courts, sport and recreational fishing, cable-driven water skiing and wakeboarding, and electric or sail-based regattas. The Red Bull sponsorship can attach to an electric-boat race and an air show held away from the lake surface. Honest flag: Gasoline jet skis, speedboat racing, and low-altitude airshows over a lake that has already suffered algal blooms are the items most likely to be refused by AMSCLAE. The electric and non-motorized versions keep the same marketing value and are much more likely to get permits. 3.7 Mineral and cement project (optional, Phase 3) A community-owned pumice and pozzolan block works, outside shoreline buffers, only after an environmental impact study and a consent vote. It supplies local housing first. It is excluded from the base-case numbers. 3.8 Heritage registry via Fiveo1.com A registration form on Fiveo1.com collects each applicant's name, birthplace, and family heritage. Eligibility is confirmed through municipal birth records and attestation from the community authority. Fiveo1.com holds the application, and the municipality and community authority make the decision. --- 4. Participant Employment and Investment Program Item Assumption Verification Status Local reference annual earnings per person $4,800 (about Q37,000) [ASSUMPTION — needs verification] Guatemalan minimum wage (non-agricultural, 2026) Q4,252.28 per month (about $6,670 per year at Q7.64/$1) [VERIFIED] Initial investment per person (x3) $14,400 Derived from assumption above Work schedule 5 hours per day, 5 days per week (1,300 hours per year) Project design choice Guaranteed wage $6.00 per hour, including legally mandated bonuses (verify) = $7,800 per year [ASSUMPTION — verify against current law] Employer social security (IGSS) 10.67% employer contribution [VERIFIED] Annual IGSS cost per participant $7,800 × 10.67% = **$832** [REVISED DOWN from $1,170] Annual cost per participant $7,800 + $832 = $8,632 [REVISED DOWN from $8,970] Housing Included: 1 unit per 2 participants Project design choice Use of the $14,400 initial investment per person: Use Amount Status Housing share $9,000 [ASSUMPTION — may be revised downward based on updated housing cost data] Training, tools, and health coverage $2,400 [ASSUMPTION] Working-capital reserve $3,000 [ASSUMPTION] Total $14,400 Eligibility: Local-born, verified through the heritage registry. The 5-hour roles are spread across the enterprises (hospitality, hatchery, hydro operations, water monitoring, transit, events, and construction). --- 5. Financial Projections 5.1 Enterprise capital and stabilized revenue (year 5) Enterprise Capital (Revised) Original Capital Annual revenue Notes Micro-hydro (1.0 MW) $2.5M–$3.0M $3.0M $0.58M At $0.12/kWh; incentive law may reduce effective cost Fish hatchery $0.5M–$1.0M $1.5M $0.40M Small-scale Guatemalan benchmarks support lower range Hotel and hydrothermal spa $5.0M–$7.0M $9.0M $2.36M At $140 rate, 55% occupancy, 40% ancillary Electric ferry and transit $2.5M $2.5M $0.60M No change Water purification and monitoring $4.0M $4.0M $0.25M Confirmed within plausible range Sports and events $1.0M $1.0M $0.30M No change Total $15.5M–$18.5M $21.0M $4.49M Capital may be 12–26% lower than original estimate Non-labor operating costs are assumed at 40% of revenue ($1.80M), leaving about **$2.69M** of earnings before participant labor. 5.2 Scenarios (Revised) A: 250 B: 500 C: 1,000 Participant investment ($14,400 each) $3.6M $7.2M $14.4M Homes (1 per 2 participants) 125 250 500 Annual participant cost ($8,632 each) $2.16M $4.32M $8.63M Enterprise earnings before labor $2.69M $2.69M $2.69M Net per year after participants +$0.53M -$1.63M -$5.94M Total capital (enterprises + participants) $19.1M–$22.1M $22.7M–$25.7M $29.9M–$32.9M Outside support needed per year none $1.6M $5.9M Reading this honestly: The program is self-sustaining only at about 250 participants, and the revised figures show a slightly better net position (+$0.53M vs. +$0.45M) because the IGSS rate is lower than originally assumed and participant costs are slightly lower. Scenarios B and C remain a social-impact commitment funded by grants, development banks, or an endowment, not a profit venture. 5.3 Upside case (Scenario A) Raising the hotel rate to $180 and occupancy to 65% adds about $1.2M of revenue and about $0.7M of earnings. With the revised lower capital base ($19.1M–$22.1M), the net after participants could reach **+$1.3M to +$1.4M per year**. If grants cover the $3.6M participant investment, the investors' capital earns a distributable return of approximately 6.5%–7.5% per year in this case, and about 2.5%–2.8% in the base case — improved from the original estimates because of the lower capital requirement. 5.4 Other measurable benefits · Renewable generation of about 4,800 MWh per year, avoiding roughly 1,700 tonnes of CO2 (carbon-credit value is small, about $25,000 per year) · 125 to 500 homes built or redeveloped · Training and guaranteed income for 250 to 1,000 local households · Cleaner lake, which is the underlying value of the hotel and tourism revenue · New: Access to Guatemala's renewable energy tax incentives (10-year exemption from import duties, VAT, and income tax) could improve returns further and should be modeled explicitly --- 6. Benefits for the Catalina Investment Pact · Shared renewable know-how: Avalon's island-grid experience (solar, storage, microgrids) is exchanged for Panajachel's run-of-river hydro experience. · Impact-investment eligibility: The structure can qualify for development-finance sources. Guatemala has active engagement with the DFC, IDB Invest, CABEI, and the Green Climate Fund (GCF). As of 2026, the GCF has approved 13 projects in Guatemala totaling $120 million** in financing, with a focus on water security, ecosystems, and climate resilience. IDB Invest has partnered with Namu Travel Group on a **$12 million financing package benefiting tourism MSMEs across Guatemala and neighboring countries. These are concrete, current funding channels. · Tourism cross-marketing: Catalina and Atitlán are both small, scenic, water-based destinations. Guatemala's tourism sector is active: the Semana Santa 2026 season alone generated Q3.6 billion in tourism spending (29% growth over 2025), and Lake Atitlán is consistently one of the top two destinations alongside Antigua Guatemala. · Huntington Beach audience: A marketing and investor-outreach target (ocean, boating, and surf culture), not a legal element. · Return profile: Modest financial return (2.5%–7.5% in Scenario A), strong impact and reputational value. --- 7. Draft Instruments A. Pact Term Sheet · Parties: Fiveo1 (Evan Winter), a Catalina-side investment vehicle, and Fiveo1 Guatemala S.A. (to be formed), with the Municipalidad de Panajachel as partner · Structure: US investment LLC funds a Guatemalan operating company; the community holds a minimum 20% ownership interest · Capital: $19.1M–$22.1M (Scenario A, revised), staged by milestone · Milestones: consultation completed, then licenses obtained, then construction, then operations · Participant fund: ring-fenced, so participant wages are paid before any investor distribution · Governance: board seats for the municipality and the community authority; independent environmental monitor · Mail and notices: Fiveo1, PO Box 312786, Avalon, California 90704 B. Draft LA County Board Resolution (non-binding support) WHEREAS Avalon, Catalina Island has developed expertise in island renewable energy; WHEREAS the Fiveo1 Lago de Atitlán Renewal & Investment Pact proposes a knowledge-exchange and impact-investment partnership; NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Board of Supervisors encourages its Department of Economic Opportunity to explore partnership and outreach opportunities, without committing County funds. This resolution is symbolic support and cannot authorize work in Guatemala. C. Municipal Convenio Outline (Panajachel) 1. Purpose and parties 2. Project footprint and land-use designation 3. Environmental, consultation, and AMSCLAE conditions 4. Community ownership and employment commitments (local-born priority) 5. Housing allocation rules and voluntary-resettlement terms 6. Reporting, audit, and dispute resolution under Guatemalan law D. Participant Agreement Outline Wage, hours, and duties; benefits and IGSS enrollment; housing allocation and tenure (no cost, protected from eviction without cause); training; voluntary participation with free withdrawal. --- 8. LA County and Local Outreach (offices, not names) Roles change, so confirm current names directly before contacting anyone. · Board of Supervisors: economic-development deputies of the relevant districts · LA County Department of Economic Opportunity · Invest LA and the LA Area Chamber of Commerce · Huntington Beach Chamber of Commerce and the city's economic development office · Catalina Island Chamber of Commerce, Catalina Island Company, Catalina Island Conservancy, and Southern California Edison's Catalina operations --- 9. Timeline Phase Period Work 0 Months 0 to 6 Feasibility, flow and thermal surveys, entity formation, consultation begins 1 Months 6 to 18 Licenses, convenio signed, water purification and first micro-hydro unit, first 50 participants 2 Months 18 to 36 Remaining hydro, hatchery, housing, electric ferry, scale to 250 participants 3 Years 3 to 5 Hotel and spa, events, optional block works, stabilized revenue --- 10. Key Risks and Items to Verify 1. Confirm current Guatemalan minimum wage and exchange rate. As of 2026, the non-agricultural minimum wage is Q4,252.28 per month, and the exchange rate is approximately Q7.64 per USD. These should be monitored quarterly. 2. Confirm municipal population and the number of eligible local-born residents. Panajachel's population is approximately 11,000–13,000 depending on source. A formal municipal census and heritage registry should be completed. 3. Obtain engineering quotes. Micro-hydro at $2,500–$3,000 per kW (site-specific), hotel at $80,000–$120,000 per room (site-specific), housing at $12,000–$15,000 per unit (site-specific). 4. Confirm a usable thermal resource exists. A thermal survey is required before finalizing spa design. 5. Secure AMSCLAE, MARN, and consultation approvals before spending on construction. 6. Retain Guatemalan and California counsel for the entity, securities, and labor structure. 7. Model Guatemala's renewable energy tax incentives explicitly. The 10-year exemption from import duties, VAT, and income tax could improve project returns by 1–3 percentage points. 8. Engage development-finance partners early. DFC, IDB Invest, CABEI, and the GCF have active Guatemala programs. Early engagement can shape the project to fit their eligibility criteria. 9. Treat all projections as planning estimates until independently reviewed. The revised figures in this document are more defensible than the original assumptions, but they still require site-specific verification.